Uzbekistan’s journey through the qualification stages has been marked by fluctuating probabilities. Following a 1-0 victory against the UAE in the fourth round, their qualification likelihood soared to 93.1%. However, a subsequent loss to Qatar saw it drop to 84.8%. The recent win over North Korea helped recover momentum, elevating their chances back to 86.7%.

Earlier results also played a critical role. A 3-2 victory over Kyrgyzstan in the second round increased their chances from 70.3% to 75.9%, while a goalless draw with Iran in the third round pushed probabilities from 75.9% to 82.8%.

Uzbekistan is currently second in Group A with 13 points, trailing Iran, which leads with 16 points. Among all Asian teams, Japan, Iran, and South Korea hold the top three spots with nearly guaranteed qualification probabilities: 100%, 99.6%, and 99.2%, respectively.

Despite tough competition, Uzbekistan remains well-positioned, outpacing strong teams such as Australia (79.2%) and Iraq (77.9%) in the qualification race.

Uzbekistan will host Kyrgyzstan in Tashkent on March 20, aiming to further bolster their position in Group A. With 8.5 spots allocated to Asia for the 2026 FIFA World Cup, the top two teams from each group will directly qualify, while the remaining spots will be contested through playoffs.

The FIFA World Cup 2026, set to take place in 16 cities across the United States, Canada, and Mexico, will feature an expanded format with 48 teams. Scheduled from June 11 to July 19, the tournament offers Asian teams a record number of qualification spots, heightening the stakes in the ongoing qualifiers.