CB: Uzbekistan’s inflation forecasts are falling again
Currency fluctuations and rising energy prices remain the main factors in expectations.

Photo: Getty images
Inflation expectations of Uzbek citizens began to decline after a jump in August, the Central Bank reports.
Based on the results of the September survey, the average predicted inflation rate for the next 12 months was 13.5% – minus 0.7 percent per month. The median figure dropped to 11%.
Exchange rate fluctuations remain the main factor in shaping forecasts for price increases – almost two-thirds of survey participants identified it. This is followed by higher prices for fuel (45%) and utilities (34%).
The share of speculative price increases (33%) and the influence of monopolies (32%) remain high. At the same time, the number of respondents who indicated an increase in wages and benefits decreased slightly (30%).
The Central Bank also provided a breakdown of expectations by income level. It follows that respondents with higher incomes predict a faster depreciation of their funds.
The lowest average figure for inflation was given by citizens with incomes of 2-3 million soums per month – 12.2%. At the same time, all groups with incomes of more than 7 million soums expect annual growth of 15% or more.
Businesses are also lowering their inflation forecasts, although at a slower rate than the general public. At the same time, they are still below the January peak level.
The average level of business inflation expectations in September was 14.2% (-0.2 percentage points), the median was 11.5%.
Exchange rate fluctuations also play a major role in shaping expectations here – they were indicated by 68% of respondents. It is followed by an increase in prices for fuel (42%) and housing and communal services (31%), as well as an increase in wages and benefits (29%).
Also, slightly more often compared to August, the rise in prices for transport (26%), interruptions in energy supply (21%) and the tax burden (20%) were noted.
Recommended
List of streets and intersections being repaired in Tashkent published
SOCIETY | 19:12 / 16.05.2024
Uzbekistan's flag flies high on Oceania's tallest volcano
SOCIETY | 17:54 / 15.05.2024
New tariffs to be introduced in Tashkent public transport
SOCIETY | 14:55 / 05.05.2023
Onix and Tracker cars withdrawn from sale
BUSINESS | 10:20 / 05.05.2023
Latest news
-
Uzbekistan imports over half a million mobile phones in just two months
SOCIETY | 19:37 / 03.04.2025
-
The story of a student who transformed a container into a learning center in Fergana’s Vodil
SOCIETY | 17:10 / 03.04.2025
-
Oman Air granted permission for regular flights between Muscat and Tashkent
SOCIETY | 16:50 / 03.04.2025
-
Shavkat Mirziyoyev and EBRD President discuss expansion of bilateral investments and projects
POLITICS | 16:33 / 03.04.2025
Related News

13:07 / 02.04.2025
Central Bank reports moderate strengthening of UZS in early 2025

17:57 / 01.04.2025
Annual inflation hits 10.3% in March

13:44 / 01.04.2025
Uzbekistan’s trade deficit reached $17.4 billion in 2024 – Central Bank

16:21 / 29.03.2025