Uzbekistan’s total external debt hits $64.1 billion

The Central Bank of Uzbekistan has published indicators for the country’s 2024 balance of payments, international investment position, and external debt. It was reported that by the end of last year, the total foreign debt attracted by the government and corporations from foreign countries, international financial institutions, and investors reached $64.1 billion. Of this, $33.9 billion was guaranteed by the state, while the remaining $30.2 billion comprises corporate (non-guaranteed) external debt.

For comparison, the total external debt in 2023 was $53.3 billion (with state external debt at $29.7 billion and corporate external debt at $23.6 billion).

According to the Central Bank's calculations, corporate external debt has been growing more rapidly in recent years. This is due to the increasing participation of national companies in international financial markets.

According to the publication on Uzbekistan’s balance of payments, international investment position, and external debt, the corporate external debt includes foreign liabilities of companies and banks with state ownership in their authorized capital. These debts are attracted without state guarantees, and payments are made from the company or bank's own funds. For example, the Eurobond issues by the Navoi Mining and Metallurgical Complex, placed on the London Stock Exchange, are reflected in the portfolio investment component of the balance of payments, and no government guarantees are provided for these obligations.

In contrast, the state external debt includes obligations attracted by the government and under the government’s guarantee.

By the end of 2024, $17.9 billion of the state’s external debt is expected to be at a fixed interest rate, and $15.64 billion at a variable interest rate.

State external debt is sourced from three main creditor directions. Specifically, 57% of the country’s external debt comes from international financial institutions, 31% from foreign governments’ financial organizations, and the remaining 12% from international investors.

The largest external loans allocated to Uzbekistan by the end of 2024 are from the World Bank – $7.63 billion (23% of the total). The second-largest creditor is the Asian Development Bank, with the country’s debt balance amounting to $7.4 billion (22%).

The third-largest debts have been attracted from international investors – $4.1 billion.

Credits obtained under state guarantees are distributed across various sectors. Specifically, nearly $15.3 billion of repayable external debt (45% of the total) is directed to support the state budget.

$5.74 billion of loans (17% of the total sum) is allocated for the energy and fuel industry. Additionally, significant external debt resources have been directed to the following sectors:

• Agriculture and water management – $2.9 billion (9%)
• Transport and transport infrastructure – $2.85 billion (8%)
• Healthcare, education, information and communication technologies, and other sectors – $2.45 billion (7%).

Uzbekistan’s state debt is projected to reach $45.1 billion by the end of 2025, which is expected to be 36.7% of the anticipated GDP ($125 billion) for that year. A total of $5.5 billion in external debt is planned to be attracted this year, with $3 billion for budget support and the remaining $2.5 billion for investment projects.

By 2026, the country’s GDP is forecast to exceed $140 billion. According to initial analyses, if macroeconomic and fiscal indicators remain stable, the ratio of state debt to GDP is expected to be around 37.9% next year. This means the state debt will exceed $53 billion.

Against the backdrop of increasing external loans, the costs of servicing the debt from the state budget have also started to rise. For example, in 2023, 8 trillion UZS was allocated for this purpose. In 2024, this amount significantly increased to 14.5 trillion UZS.

In the coming years, the expenditure for servicing the debt interest is expected to grow. Specifically, in 2025, 21.1 trillion UZS will be allocated for debt servicing interest, in 2026 – 30.3 trillion UZS, and in 2027 – 33.8 trillion UZS.