Breaking old alliances: How the EU is rethinking its foreign policy

The Munich Security Conference, held from February 14 to 16 of this year, has reflected a significant shift in the global order. In essence, it has dealt a blow to the fundamental principles of the Western bloc system that emerged following the end of World War II. From this point forward, the alliance between Europe and the United States appears to be losing its former significance. The statement by U.S. Vice President Vance, coupled with the commencement of negotiations between the United States and Russia on resolving the Ukrainian crisis without European participation, represents a serious challenge to the architecture of European security. This development raises a critical question: what trajectory will the European Union’s foreign policy take in the new geopolitical landscape? Could there be shifts in the EU’s approach to the Middle East, Iran, Central and South Asia, Afghanistan, China, and the Far East?

Values

Since the Cold War, European countries have participated in virtually all of the United States’ overseas conflicts. Guided by considerations of shared values and security, EU and NATO member states have supported Washington’s initiatives in military campaigns such as those in Korea, Iraq, and Afghanistan. Furthermore, due to U.S. policies, European countries have historically adopted a negative stance towards Iran and China. In the emerging international configuration, the following transformations in the EU’s foreign policy can be anticipated.

China and Central Asia

A reassessment of relations between Europe and China appears possible. During the Munich Conference, European leaders exhibited noticeable cordiality toward Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi. The broad spectrum of issues discussed between the parties may signal an expansion of dialogue. If ensuring Europe’s security becomes an exclusively European responsibility, then the strategy of “containing” China may remain primarily a U.S. prerogative within its global agenda.

The policy of “containing” China does not yield significant benefits for the European Union beyond demonstrating solidarity with the United States. Meanwhile, deepening cooperation with China could substantially enhance trade and economic ties across the Eurasian supercontinent. The EU and China, as two major economic centers located at opposite ends of Eurasia, have the potential to foster dynamic regional development through increased interaction.

The implementation of initiatives such as the Middle Corridor and the Belt and Road Initiative is expected to contribute to the revival of the ancient Silk Road in a modern format. In this context, the nations situated between these two economic giants – Central Asian, Caucasian, and Middle Eastern states – stand to gain significantly by serving as key transit hubs.

Iran

Iran and its nuclear program have long been central issues in European foreign policy. However, Iran’s international isolation is largely a consequence of the United States’ negative stance following the events of 1979. It was Washington that designated Iran as a threat to the Western world, leading to the cooling of Iran-Europe relations. Freed from the obligation to align with American policies, the European Union may now consider Iran as a potential partner. Given contemporary energy challenges, Iran’s oil and gas resources hold significant appeal for Europe. Moreover, Tehran could serve as a strategic bridge linking Europe with both China and India.

Afghanistan

Afghanistan also presents a potential new direction for European foreign policy. The cooling of relations between the EU and Afghanistan was primarily driven by the events of September 11, 2001, and the subsequent U.S.-led military intervention. European participation in the Afghan campaign was largely an expression of solidarity with Washington in its confrontation with the Taliban regime. However, the absence of direct hostility between the European Union and the Taliban may create the groundwork for a bilateral dialogue in which the EU operates independently of U.S. positions.

A similar recalibration could extend to Europe’s relations with Iraq and North Korea, as their status as threats to international security has largely been shaped by American foreign policy. Amid a growing reassessment of its diplomatic priorities, Brussels may seek to redefine its engagement with these states based on its own strategic interests.

India

Europe’s approach to South Asia may also undergo transformation. India, with one of the world’s fastest-growing economies, has the potential to become a key partner for the European Union. Following the initiation of negotiations on resolving the Gaza conflict, New Delhi has renewed discussions on the prospects of establishing the “India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor”.

Additionally, the Indian leadership is placing significant emphasis on developing the North-South Transport Corridor and modernizing the Chabahar port, which could serve as a foundation for strengthening economic cooperation between the EU and India. In the new geopolitical landscape, the European Union, keen on diversifying its external economic ties, may revise its engagement strategy with India, placing greater emphasis on strategic transport projects and expanding trade routes.

Turkish enigma

Relations with Türkiye may emerge as an unpredictable factor in European foreign policy. Until now, cooperation has primarily been conducted within the framework of NATO under U.S. leadership. However, as European security becomes an exclusively internal matter for EU states, the question arises as to the sustainability of Türkiye -EU relations. How reliable will this alliance remain in the absence of American mediation? Could Türkiye transform into a geopolitical competitor to Europe, given its neo-Ottoman ambitions? These questions pose serious challenges for Brussels.

Conclusion

Thus, the transformative processes set in motion following the Munich Conference mark a turning point for Europe. However, alongside these challenges, new opportunities arise for China, India, Central Asian countries, Iran, and Afghanistan in the context of deepening relations with the European Union.

Hamza Boltaev
Head of the Centre for Afghanistan and South Asian Studies,
Institute for Advanced International Studies

Islomkhon Gafarov
Senior Research Fellow, Centre for Afghanistan and South Asian Studies,
Institute for Advanced International Studies