The report highlights that remittances in 2023 are expected to increase by 25-30%, amounting to approximately $14.5-$15 billion. For the years 2025 through 2027, the Central Bank anticipates remittance growth to stabilize, expanding by 10-15% annually as part of a long-term upward trend. However, the weakening of the Russian ruble is noted as a significant potential risk that may impact remittance volumes, especially given Uzbekistan’s reliance on money transfers from its substantial migrant population in Russia.

According to the Central Bank’s scenario, shifts in migration flows and the growing trend of Uzbeks migrating to higher-income countries are expected to support an increase in remittance volumes. As more Uzbeks find employment in higher-income nations, inflows from these countries are projected to grow, diversifying the sources of remittances and potentially reducing dependence on any single currency, such as the Russian ruble.

In the first nine months of this year, Uzbekistan received $11.3 billion in remittances, reflecting a 34.8% increase compared to the same period last year. The Central Bank expects this growth to continue, though it notes that the impact of the depreciating ruble on remittance flows may gradually diminish over the coming years as more Uzbeks move to countries with stronger currencies.