Inflation perception surges in Uzbekistan, with fuel and meds leading the rise

The perceived level of inflation in Uzbekistan increased significantly in April, the Central Bank's survey results indicate.

The average perceived price increase over the past 12 months rose by one percentage point to 13.7%. The median estimate jumped to 11.3% (+0.9%), the highest since August 2023.

The highest inflationary perceptions were reported in Tashkent at 17.4%, followed by Namangan at 15% and Bukhara at 14.9%. The smallest price increases were observed in Karakalpakstan at 9.9%, Jizzakh at 10.9%, and Samarkand at 11.8%.

A third of respondents in the capital rated inflation above 20%, compared to only 8% in the Samarkand region and Karakalpakstan. Karakalpakstan had the largest share of respondents with low inflation estimates at 52%, followed by Jizzakh at 45%.

As observed previously, population groups with higher incomes cited larger inflation figures over the year. Those earning more than 15 million UZS per month estimated it at 17.7%, while citizens earning between 10-15 million UZS stated 16.4%.

Uzbeks earning less than 2 million UZS reported an average inflation rate of 12.9%, and those with 3-4 million UZS at 12.8%. Among citizens earning 2-3 million UZS, the inflationary sensation was 13.6%.

Gasoline ranked first among the products with the most prominent price increases at 38% (down from 43% a month ago). Medicines came second at 36% (up from 24% in March), followed by meat and dairy products at 28% (down from 29% in March).

The proportion of respondents naming fruits and vegetables decreased to 27%. The smallest price increases in April were noted in vegetable oil (12%), eggs (13%), and household appliances (14%).