Inflationary factors on the demand side and shifts in commodity supply have accelerated price growth in recent months, the Central Bank said in a press release.

This was one of the reasons why the regulator left the key rate at 14% per annum. It is expected that it will provide monetary conditions to keep inflation at the forecast level (as noted earlier, it is 9-9.5%).

Overall inflation, after declining at the beginning of the year, rose to 9.2% by the end of September. Along with the seasonal rise in food prices, an increase in the impact on the general level of regulated prices was noted.

Core inflation continues to slow, but remains significantly higher than overall inflation at 10.3%. This indicates an increase in the prices of stable components, to slow which it is necessary to continue the “relatively tight” monetary policy.

Inflation expectations of households and businesses are declining again after rising in August, but remain sensitive to short-term shocks. The dynamics of inflation and exchange rates of the main partner countries increased pressure on the effective exchange rate of the soum.

At the same time, the real sector of the economy shows positive trends. Fiscal stimulus boosted consumer spending and aggregate demand, with revenue from trade and services up 28%.

In addition, since the beginning of the year, the volume of non-centralized investments has increased significantly. Thanks to these factors, GDP growth over a nine-month period amounted to 5.8%.

The inflow of cross-border remittances decreased by 33.7% compared to last year, mainly due to the high base effect. At the same time, it grew by more than 40% by the same period in 2021.

The current “relatively” tight monetary policy allows for moderate lending growth rates overall. The rapid increase in the retail loan segment is compensated by macroprudential measures, the Central Bank emphasized.