As the press service of the Central Bank reported, following the results of November, the annual growth of prices of food products stood at 13.4%, and the Group of non-food goods and services – at 7.9% and 8.1%, respectively.
Core inflation, calculated excluding changes in seasonally fluctuating prices for fruits and vegetables, as well as regulated prices (tariffs), decreased to 8.9%. At the same time, the lowest since 2018 was the value of the contribution of core inflation to headline inflation, which amounted to 6.8 percentage points.
According to surveys conducted in November, inflationary expectations of the population and business entities for the next 12 months formed at the level of 16.5% and 15.6%, respectively. The main factors of inflationary expectations, the respondents cite the rise in prices for fuel products and transport services, as well as the impact of uncertainties associated with the pandemic on the production and supply of goods (imports).
Taking into account the positive dynamics of economic activity and growth of industries in the first 11 months, by the end of the year, economic growth rates of about 6.5-7.2% are expected. According to the results of a survey conducted in November among enterprises of the real sector, the index of economic activity, showing a slight seasonal downward trend, formed at a positive level, amounting to 53.4 (average annual 52.9).
“The implementation of a large-scale fiscal stimulus from the second half of 2021 and the current monetary policy environment will be one of the main factors supporting consumer demand and investment activity in the first half of 2022. According to calculations, from the second half of 2022, the rate of economic growth will approach its long-term trend, and the economy will reach its potential level,” the report reads.
As a result of continued lending activity, the volume of loans allocated to the economy in January-November increased by 31% compared to the same period last year, and the level of repayment improved by 14 percentage points to 72%.
