What can be expected from the summit of CA leaders?

POLITICS 18:52 / 13.12.2019 435

This summit can be seen as a kind of application for the transition to the next phase of development of trade-economic and investment relations between the countries of the region. Over the past three years after the start of the openness policy of Uzbekistan, serious results have been achieved in increasing the volume of trade between countries. 

The creation of developed trade, industrial and investment ties in Central Asia may serve as a kind of “safety cushion” for the countries of the region themselves in case of crises in the global economy, similar to the crises of 2008-2009 and 2014.

The results of the Tashkent meeting can also be interpreted as a message to investors that many of the previous problems which lowered the level of investment attractiveness of Central Asia are now either solved or the work on their solution is underway. 

The current processes in the relations between the largest world economies create not only the risks of recession, but also open a window of opportunity for Central Asia to attract foreign investment, technology, knowledge, opportunities for inclusion in the supply chain and value added.

Further development of the format of consultative meetings, which may affect the overall improvement of the business and political climate in CA, will create a new reality. It will have two aspects. First of all, the status and importance of Central Asia will increase even more for Afghanistan, which, due to historical changes in the XX century, began to gravitate more towards Pakistan and Iran. 

The second aspect of the new reality is a change in the approach of the Central Asian countries to the development of relations with Afghanistan. If earlier the bilateral format “a separate country of Central Asia – Afghanistan” prevailed, the potential of which allowed to implement only individual projects, say, electricity supply, then in the new reality it will be possible to talk about the possibility of creating a format, where Central Asian countries can speak with Afghanistan in a consolidated manner. This is a completely different scale, which will allow us to discuss not only individual projects, but also the issue of the full-scale reintegration of Afghanistan and Central Asia.

When talking about Afghanistan and Central Asia, the main emphasis is placed on the historical, cultural and ethnolinguistic community, but at the same time, the question of what separates us is often overlooked. The history of modernization separates us. There were three major modernization attempts in Afghanistan in the XX century, which ended in failure and led to destabilization.

After 2001, we see the 4th attempt to modernize Afghanistan, which is under threat due to the ongoing internal instability. If it fails, then another similar chance for Afghanistan will not come soon. The countries of Central Asia could not only render feasible assistance in establishing the peace process, but also begin to substantively discuss with Afghanistan the development of key generators of modernization at the points of intersection of mutual interests.

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