Central Bank predicts annual inflation at about 12%

BUSINESS 20:17 / 05.09.2022 5508

In August, the consumer price index rose by 0.52%. This is comparable to the monthly level of previous years, according to the State Statistics Committee.

By September 1, inflation since the beginning of the year reached 6.98%, which is noticeably higher than in previous years, also due to the absence of traditional deflation in June. The Central Bank expects inflation slightly above the 12% mark by the end of the year.

Annual inflation remains at 12.3%, surpassing both pandemic 2020 (11.65%) and 2021 (11.1%) figures.

The main contribution to inflation again fell on food products. Over the past month, they have risen in price by an average of 0.7%, and since the beginning of the year - by 8.5%. Over the 12-month period, prices increased by 16.3%, slightly below the level of 2020.

In August, fruits and nuts fell in price (-2.2%), as well as vegetables (-0.5%) for the first time in recent years. On the other hand, prices for cereals (+1.6%) and confectionery (+1.3%) rose noticeably over the month — they top the annual rating (+30% and +29.5%).

Among individual products, rice rose in price noticeably (+3.6%), adding 14.5% over the year. Flour has risen in price by 47% since last August, and sugar - by 64%. However, prices have now slowed down.

From fruit and vegetable products, in the annual context, there was an increase in prices for onions (2.7 times), bell peppers (1.8 times) and cabbage (1.7 times). Bananas, apples and pears fell in price over the reporting period.

Growth in prices for manufactured goods slowed down to 0.4% per month. However, in a longer-term retrospective, inflation in this sector exceeds previous indicators - 7.2% since the beginning of the year and 10.9% since last August.

Here, the largest increase is still observed in the field of household appliances, furniture and household goods - 0.6% on a monthly basis and 11.6% on an annual basis. The apparel and footwear segment follows with 0.3% and 8.8% respectively.

Paid services in August also became more expensive by 0.4%. Compared to last August, the increase amounted to 7.1%, slightly yielding to last year’s figures.

Financial services, which rose in price a month earlier, have now fallen slightly in price (-0.1%). This was achieved by reducing the cost of money transfers due to changes in the exchange rate of the soum. The annual increase in prices in fintech amounted to 8.5%.

On the other hand, airfare prices rose again by 2.1%. Growth in prices for hotel services slowed to 0.3% for the month, but since last August it has amounted to almost 14%.

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