“Since March, the volume of remittances from Russia has significantly decreased. In particular, in the first half of March 2022, the total volume of remittances sent to Uzbekistan decreased significantly compared to the same period last year. However, it is still difficult to say for sure that the decline in remittances was only due to the collapse of the ruble. Most likely, high levels of uncertainty will play a role here, which will affect the decision of migrant workers to send or not to send money,” he said without presenting specific figures.
According to him, the economic situation in Russia, as a result of sanctions, will be accompanied in the medium term by structural changes in the sources of remittances and the recovery of foreign exchange supply in the domestic market of Uzbekistan.
The head of the Central Bank said that the volume of problematic loans (NPL) may also increase due to the reduction in remittances and declining incomes.
“The level of uncertainty over the current external risk situation is high, and the Central Bank is stress-testing the financial system based on possible expectations for its development. At the same time, the reduction in incomes of the population due to the reduction of remittances, in turn, will have a certain impact on their credit discipline, of course,” he said.
With the negative changes in payment discipline, the Central Bank, in turn, takes measures to prevent the growth of problematic loans in the banking system and, based on the current situation, recommends commercial banks to take a separate approach to each client, if necessary.
A number of regions – Khorezm (27.1%), Samarkand (25.3%), Andijan (22.2%), Surkhandarya (21.6%) and Karakalpakstan (20%) have the largest remittances in the total income of the population. occupies a significant share. The reduction in transfers can affect their payment discipline if they have loans (mortgages, consumer, etc.). In 2021, labor migrants sent $8.1 billion (+34%) to Uzbekistan, but World Bank experts expect that this volume will decrease by 21% in 2022 due to the economic situation in Russia.
According to the CB data, the share of problematic loans in banks’ loan portfolio increased from 5.2% to 5.4% in January. As of February 1, their volume increased by 503 billion soums and amounted to 17.47 trillion soums.
In the loan portfolio of banks, loans to individuals amounted to 69.6 trillion soums, including mortgage loans – 36.2 trillion soums, microloans – 9.9 trillion soums, consumer loans – 12.3 trillion soums and loans for business development – 11.07 trillion soums.
