This increase of more than 10% in probability comes after Uzbekistan's hard-fought 1-0 win over the UAE. The victory placed Uzbekistan fourth among the top contenders for direct qualification from Asia, trailing only Japan, Iran, and South Korea. Prior to this match, the team’s chances were at 82.8%.
In the previous rounds, Uzbekistan's draw against Iran (0-0) in the third round pushed its qualification probability from 75.9% to 82.8%. Similarly, their victory over Kyrgyzstan (3-2) in the second round had raised their chances from 70.3% to 75.9%, while the possibility of failing to qualify dropped to just 0.4%.
The latest rankings show Iran as the top contender from Group A, with a 99.6% chance of direct qualification, followed by Japan, South Korea, and Uzbekistan. Iran's chances improved by 1.5% after their 4-1 victory over Qatar in the fourth round.
Meanwhile, Qatar, Uzbekistan's next opponent in the fifth round, saw its chances plummet after the defeat against Iran. The loss pushed Qatar out of the top 10 contenders for World Cup qualification in Asia.
According to We Global Football, the top 10 Asian teams with the highest chances of qualifying for the 2026 World Cup after four rounds are:
• Japan – 99.99% (up from 99.9%)
• Iran – 99.6% (up from 98.0%)
• South Korea – 99.5% (up from 97.5%)
• Uzbekistan – 93.1% (up from 82.8%)
• Australia – 75.1% (up from 57.8%)
• Iraq – 53.4% (down from 61.5%)
• Jordan – 41.6% (up from 29.0%)
• Saudi Arabia – 16.7% (down from 31.2%)
• Bahrain – 7.9% (down from 10.6%)
• Oman – 5.4% (down from 9.4%)
Uzbekistan's upcoming matches will be crucial as they face Qatar in Doha on November 14, followed by an encounter with North Korea on November 19 in Laos. Head coach Srečko Katanec, currently undergoing treatment, is expected to lead the team for these decisive matches.
It's worth noting that Asia has been allocated 8.5 spots for the 2026 World Cup. The top two teams from each group will secure direct qualification, while teams finishing third and fourth will compete in play-offs for the remaining 2.5 spots.
Uzbekistan and Iran are currently tied at the top of Group A, each with 10 points. The 2026 FIFA World Cup will take place from June 11 to July 19, 2026, in 16 cities across the U.S., Canada, and Mexico.
