After the team's 0-0 draw against Iran in the third round, Uzbekistan's probability of directly qualifying from Group A rose from 75.9% to 82.8%, marking a 7% increase. This performance positions Uzbekistan as the fourth-strongest contender in the race for direct qualification among Asian teams.
Uzbekistan had previously boosted its chances after a victory over Kyrgyzstan in the second round, raising its likelihood of qualification from 70.3% to 75.9%. The team's chances of advancing through the playoffs were calculated at 23.8%, while the likelihood of missing the World Cup entirely fell from 1% to 0.4%.
Iran remains the top contender from Group A, with a direct qualification probability of 98%, a slight increase from 97% after the previous round.
On the other hand, the United Arab Emirates' chances have significantly dropped to 15.5% after their second-round defeat and further declined after a draw with North Korea. Qatar's probability of qualification also decreased from 16% to 11.2% after the second round but slightly improved to 11.4% following a victory over Kyrgyzstan.
Japan, Iran, and South Korea remain firm favorites to qualify, with Japan leading the way with a 99.99% chance, followed by Iran (98%) and South Korea (97.5%).
Current World Cup 2026 Qualification Chances for Asian Teams:
- Japan - 99.99%
- Iran - 98.0%
- South Korea - 97.5%
- Uzbekistan - 82.8%
- Iraq - 61.5%
- Australia - 57.8%
- Saudi Arabia - 31.2%
- Jordan - 29.0%
- Oman - 11.6%
- Qatar - 11.4%
It is worth noting that Asia has been allocated 8.5 slots for the 2026 World Cup. The top two teams from each of the three groups will earn direct qualification, while the teams finishing third and fourth will compete in playoffs for the remaining 2.5 spots. Uzbekistan currently shares the top position in Group A with Iran, both holding seven points.
