Macroeconomic conditions in the H1 of 2019 were mainly formed under the influence of a favorable situation on individual commodity export products and rapid growth rates of aggregate demand, the Central Bank press service reports.

The real GDP growth rate was 5.8%. At the same time, high activity was observed in the industrial (6.9%) and construction (20%) sectors, as well as in the services sphere (12.7%). Investment in the main capital increased by 58.9%.

“The current realities of the economy of Uzbekistan are peculiar. Accumulated investment “hunger” over the years and deferred socio-economic costs, coupled with the economy liberalization, have generated additional demand for financial and investment resources.

At the same time, the main factors that stimulated it in the H1 of 2019 were the expansion of credit investments in the economy and higher rates of growth in government expenditure compared to the originally planned volume,” the regulator said.

In the analyzed period, the negative balance of foreign trade amounted to $2.8 billion and by the end of the year it is expected to increase. It is assumed that the deficit of the foreign trade balance will be covered by the net primary and secondary incomes of the current account, as well as the financial account, and will not create significant pressure on the soum’s exchange rate. 

In the first half of 2019, the exchange rate of the national currency remained relatively stable, thanks to a moderate supply of foreign currency, supported by the preservation of export earnings and the growth of cross-border transfers, due to favorable external conditions. From the beginning of the year, the exchange rate of the soum was devaluated by 2.7%.

“A significant increase in aggregate demand in the economy may contribute to a slight acceleration in the real GDP growth rate by the end of 2019, compared with the initial forecast,” the Central Bank concluded.